Folks have doubt on the double digit growth

If anyone doesn’t appreciate any county’s development, he should not be detained at a detention centre but should be taken either to a medical centre or may be to a school. Ethiopian government attempt to economic growth should have attracted its own people as they are the primary beneficiaries of the act. However, a lot of folks have doubt on the double digit growth. And, proclaim that it is “Cooked growth number”

Mr Zenawi said this year “We have differences with the international financial institutions when we predict our economic growth, but we usually agree on the economic growth statistics at the end of each year.”

The questions remain: Did the Ethiopian economy grow by 12.8 percent in 2009/10? Could it be expected to grow by 10.1 per cent in 2010/11? Who is keeping track of the economic statistics?

The Central Statistics Agency (CSA) and the “National Accounts Department of the Ministry Finance and Economic Development” are the two institutions in Ethiopia that are responsible for keeping track of the statistical data and providing analysis on economic performance. But neither organization has the institutional capability to collect reliable and accurate economic data, let alone assemble complete and comprehensive data sets which could serve as empirical bases for economic prognostications. This fact was emphatically stated on March 24, 2010 in the official statement of Paul Mathieu, the IMF team leader who, after conducting an evaluation of the current half fiscal year economic performance of Ethiopia, said: “Statistics collection of the country requires transformations, and we advised the government to do that.” If we try to translate “transformation” into ordinary language “cooked up.”

In its April 2010 “Background Note: Ethiopia”, the U.S. State Department reported an average inflation rate (FY 2008-2009) of 36%. There is no IMF (or any other credible multilateral institution) year-end or any other report which indicates that Ethiopia could expect a 12.8 or 10.1 percent economic growth or a decline in inflation to 3.9 percent in 2009/10 or any other subsequent year. Indeed, IMF’s Mathieu stated on March 24, 2010 that “non-food inflation remains close to 20 percent, and has been rising in recent months.” The claim that “we usually agree on the economic growth statistics at the end of each year” is simply not true.

The IMF report also stated the origin of the data indicating an 11 percent growth is not some independent data collection and analysis source but the very same Central Statistics Office which last month the IMF said needs massive “transformation”. meaning “please, don’t cook”.

As, you might also recalled ESAT, Dr. Birhanue’s concern about the industrial development, he stated that, It is impossible to expect Industrial development due to our past electricity interruption. And, the agricultural development is a kind of good tool for EPRDF to confuse the international community as it is a difficult task to investigate (to perform).